WARSAW. On the night of September 9–10, 2025, the airspace of the Republic of Poland was breached by at least 19 drones flying in from the territory of the Republic of Belarus – a member state of the Union State of Belarus and Russia (rus. Союзное государство России и Беларуси). Some of the aggressor’s drones were shot down by fighter jets belonging to the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO – a defensive military alliance), preventing major material damage. Still, the Polish economy has taken a significant hit.
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The medium- and long-term consequences of this drone incursion into Polish airspace, carried out using Iranian-made Shahed drones employed by Russian forces, remain difficult to estimate. What is certain, however, is that this event has reduced Poland’s investment security. The extent of the damage will largely depend on whether the conflict escalates further and on NATO’s response. Following Poland’s request, NATO has already triggered Article IV of the Treaty, which initiates internal consultations—a move that has influenced market sentiment.
How Did the Warsaw Stock Exchange React to the Drone Attack?
Amidst the political and military tensions, the Polish economy experienced strong turbulence from the morning of September 10, 2025. While there was no outright panic on the Warsaw Stock Exchange (WSE), stock prices quickly declined.
By 10:00 a.m., the WIG20 index (tracking the 20 largest companies) was down by 1%. The situation worsened once it became clear that Prime Minister Donald Tusk’s government would formally invoke NATO’s Article IV. At that point, the WIG20 fell by 2.5%, while the overall valuation of all listed companies on the WSE dropped by 1.7%. Later in the day, however, investor sentiment improved and the market began to recover.
How Did Drones Impact Polish Bonds and the National Currency?
Just like stock investors, currency traders and exporters were shaken by the drone attack. Andrzej Stefaniak, economist and currency market expert, observed that the Polish złoty (PLN) reacted negatively in the early hours of September 10.
“Polish bonds are also weakening, and the Warsaw Stock Exchange is falling sharply,” noted economist Andrzej Stefaniak.
However, some analysts pointed out that a weaker złoty against the U.S. dollar could benefit exporters who settle their transactions in the American currency.
How Much Did the Polish Złoty Lose After the Drone Attack?
In early trading, the Polish złoty dropped 0.5% against the U.S. dollar, reaching nearly 3.63 PLN/USD. This halted the steady strengthening trend of the Polish currency. Against the euro, the złoty lost slightly less—0.4%—with the exchange rate peaking at 4.27 PLN/EUR.
What Is the Outlook for the Polish Złoty?
“The reaction of the złoty exchange rate to the drone attack on Polish territory is textbook from a market perspective, confirming the key valuation of the U.S. dollar at 3.63 PLN. In the medium and long term, however, the fate of the Polish currency will continue to depend on global factors, particularly the euro-to-dollar relationship,” emphasized Andrzej Stefaniak, economist and currency expert.
He also added that if U.S. President Donald Trump continues to pursue a strategy of a weakening dollar, the Polish złoty is likely to strengthen further.
Jerzy Mosoń – Head of the Economy & World Section Polish News Agency (Agencja Informacyjna), analyst, business advisor
📧 jerzy.moson@agencja-informacyjna.com
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Polish News, Economy, Source: Agencja Informacyjna, 10.09.2025
